Note: I realize this issue is very polarizing, and is way outside of my normal writings. I think it is important enough that we all should think about it at least a little and understand what we are doing in California.
The Pollution of The 1960's and 1970's Isn't Gone, It just Looks Different.
As a kid growing up and surfing the Southern California Coast, I remember coming home and using turpentine to clean the tar and oil off of my feet at the end of each day. At the same time I learned how to fix up muscle cars and became an admitted gear head. Tar and oil were just part of the deal.
This is just one of the many hypocrisy’s that I am trying to work through in my life and one I share with a lot of Californians whether they realize it or not. These days it is much nicer to go surfing on a clean beach and come home with clean feet. I am not adding to the pollution problems by using turpentine to clean my feet either.
People who lived in Southern California during the 70‘s might remember smog so bad you couldn’t see across the San Fernando Valley or see the Saddle Back Mountains from the beach. I didn’t even know those mountains existed as a kid. All I knew was brown air and running burned my lungs. I believed my parents that smog controls were bad and wouldn’t fix anything, today I am a believer as I look out front door and look at the hills.
Little Puzzle Pieces Create A Big Picture.
While adding smog controls to cars wasn’t the only thing that cleaned up the air in Southern California, it was a contributing factor that led to the clear skies I am looking at today.
These days, California needs power. When summer hits the people living in the Inland Empire and San Joaquin Valley are going to crank those thermostats down and the A/C will be spinning the electric meter like a top. In a perfect world we would put solar panels on all of those hot roofs and make up a big chunk of the peak power needs. Even if it could happen, it won’t happen this summer.
The San Onofre Nuclear Power Plant is part of the solution to filling the power needs of California. Harvey Wasserman doesn’t want the power plant to come back online. Who is Harvery Wasserman? Harvey Wasserman is the main man behind the move to keep San Onofre offline and the “No Nuke” guy. You would think he is from California, but he isn’t. The land of tree huggers isn’t where Mr. Wasserman calls home. He lives in Columbus Ohio. Harvey clearly didn’t surf here in the 70’s and most of the surfers he is organizing must not have either.
Don’t get me wrong, I am not a “fan” of nuclear power plants and I am not saying that San Onofre is THE solution. I realize that part of the tradeoff of cleaner air is the radioactive waste created by nuclear reactors that we really don't know what to do with. This is just another level to that hypocrisy that I said I am trying to work through. I really like being able to see the mountains from the beaches of Southern California. Sadly nuclear power is a part of what lets me see the mountains. The facts are the reactors at San Onofre are already built, have already been running, and might be able to provide some relief to the electrical needs of California this summer if allowed to restart.
For the short term, California needs to understand the real implications of not letting San Onofre provide power during the peak months. Brownouts, blackouts and higher power costs are all possible and even probable. Billionaire Solar City co-founder Elon Musk might sell a few more solar systems and a few less Teslas , and Harvey Wasseraman will count it a victory. The rest of California will pay the price.
For the long term Mr. Wasserman is right. Nuclear power plants create dangerous waste and are a risk to the environment, no question. San Onofre is shut down right now for inspections, during which abnormal wear has been found in one reactor. The other is shut down as a precaution after a “minor leak may be been found”. Personally there isn’t a “minor” leak when it comes to nuclear power, so I am fine with that reactor being down for repairs.
In my perfect world, I would join with Mr. Wasserman and Mr. Musk and put solar panels on every roof and a battery pack on the side of every garage and shut down every nuclear plant that uses current technology. The reality is our economy needs the power plants to keep moving forward. Politicians don’t want to hear the complaints when the temperatures are in the triple digits or energy prices double overnight.
Balance is the key to success.
Twenty years ago, California had a major water problem, and will always have a water problem. Over a ten year period, the population doubled and California didn’t run out of water. There was rationing for a while, because the solutions take time. Now we have water saving shower heads, toilets with two buttons, low water usage grass and a host of other technical improvements to use less water to begin with and reuse what we can.
Thirty years ago, California was in the same boat as the rest of the country with the fuel shortage during the OPEC oil limitations in 1973 all the way to the embargo of 1979. Cars changed forever and our driving habits were changed. Economy cars became a way of life for the world, and the 55 MPH speed limit was forced upon us. The 55 limit is gone, but 30 MPG and better economy cars are everywhere.
On a per capita basis, oil consumption from 1973 to 1983 dropped nearly 22%. From 1983 to today, it has dropped another 4% with the usage steadily declining
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Today, electricity poses a similar problem, but will create much more complicated problems for Californians. With Odd/Even water rationing, you knew which days to water your lawn. With Odd/Even fuel rationing, you could plan ahead, get in line and fuel up. Rolling blackouts don’t have a schedule you can keep up with. One minute your alarm clock is set and your ice cream is comfortably frozen. The next minute you are late to work and your kids are staring at a mess in the freezer.
California is already considered the lowest per capita user of electricity in the industrialized world with building codes like Title 24 setting the standard.
One of the little understood problems with delivering electricity is called “line loss”. Power plants have to generate a lot more power than people ever get to use. If you play golf under the big power towers you can literally hear the electricity being converted to sound. That clicking noise is a small percentage of the electricity being lost into thin air.
Small power stations that transform 110kv to 440v and later to 220v electricity, and those grey transformers we used to see on power poles are another place where power is lost.
Another major issue for power generation companies is the inability to store electricity. It must be generated on demand. If you had a volt meter on your house, you would see it vary from 105v to 125v. As the generators kick up the voltage will peak near 125v. I have recorded up to 131v at my home. I have also seen peak power drop below 100v, this is technically a brown out. The lights stay on but your computers and smart appliances freak out.
Smaller Local Power Stations
Local power generation reduces line loss. Even if we go with the low estimate that “The Grid” only loses 5-7% delivering power to you, that 5-7% is more than all of the 3% of the total electrical supply generated by wind. All of those big ugly windmills don’t even cover the amount of energy lost in the lines.
Cutting the distance the electricity travels in half by building smaller local power generators could make up for all of the windmills in the US. Adding solar to more homes instead of building big solar farms will help too.
Why don’t more homes have solar? Why don’t developers build small generators when they build neighborhoods? It is a question of power and money. If utopia happened and every home got enough solar power and storage to go off grid the power companies would be out of work. Developers build houses, not power companies. They don’t want that to happen, and the government wants the taxes.
Los Angeles took over water and power years ago. If you live in LA, you have no choice, so you would think LA would lead the country in alternative energy solutions, and yet it doesn’t look that way.
So what is the answer?
It took rationing to get Californians to think differently about water and gasoline. Rolling blackouts might change the way we think about electricity or they might damage the already fragile economy. Water and electricity are very different. People can wait a few hours to water their lawn. People won’t feel safe coming home in the dark, and they won’t tolerate the food in the freezer going to waste for too long.
The great thing about life in the United States is that business finds a way to solve problems as long as the government doesn’t get in the way. The government on the other hand can help by making rules that encourage the new technology and changes in the way we think and live. Water rationing and fuel rationing worked, but will electric rationing?
Rolling Blackouts are an uncontrolled form of rationing. With fuel rationing and water rationing, Californian’s had a schedule for getting water and fuel. With rolling blackouts we don’t have the choice of when we lose power. Will your alarm clock go off? Will your food make it? Rolling Blackouts are a very painful way to encourage people to think differently about electricity.
The truly rich won’t be affected. High efficiency appliances, generators and solar panels with battery backup systems are all out there and in the homes of the well healed. The politicians making the decisions for you about electricity won’t suffer and neither will their big backers.
It is everyone else in California who should be concerned. San Onofre getting a permit to restart a reactor will help California keep the rolling blackouts to a minimum but at what long term cost?
Over the horizon there is technology that might provide a solution. On one end, there are multiple small solutions which combined can make a big difference. Solar Panels can fill a small percentage. Bloom Fuel Cell Generators a little more. Conservation through smarter technology in lighting, heating and cooling will help. All combined though, it still isn’t enough. At least not yet.
There is one solution on the horizon that looks promising. TerraPower. TerraPower has caught the interest of Bill Gates, yes Microsoft Founder and Billionaire Bill Gates.
Will TerraPower be ready in time? If the government stops trying to make change and lets change happen, TerraPower or some other cleaner, safer electric solution will happen. It is the American way to find a solution to a problem just when we think we need it most.
Opportunity is what makes this country great. Most industries undergo a radical change leaving old companies in the dust while new companies rise from the ashes. The tech industry is famous for destroying it’s own in order for the entire industry to move forward. Remember Tandem Computers? Probably not.
Oil, Gas and Coal companies are big and powerful, and will use everything they have to stay in business. Without intending too, Harvey Wasserman might just be helping their case. Keeping San Onofre offline will make it harder to charge electric cars, increasing demand for energy generated by fossil fuels.
Is using hydraulic fracking to get more oil and gas out of the ground a better deal than creating nuclear waste? Quite frankly I am not a fan of either. So how do we move forward?
California’s energy problems won’t be solved by more offshore drilling or fracking more oil and gas out of the ground. We need bigger solutions that are above basic politics and simple ideology. Those solutions take time and patience.
Ten years ago I was opposed to electric cars. Today I am thinking about buying one. Most people don’t know it was Cadillac that killed the electric car when they created the electric starter. When Cadillac’s parent tried to create an electric car the EV-1 hit the road. I never saw one in real life. The economies of scale and the improvement in batteries will only happen when more people buy and want electric cars.
After the EV-1 failed, the government stepped up and now there are so many hybrid cars, you can’t tell for sure unless you read the little nameplate. Toyota is well known for the Prius even though they offer close to a dozen hybrids when you include the Lexus line. Nissan took a different route and created the Leaf, a pure electric car.
Al Gore had one thing right. Simply increasing the taxes on gasoline will change how people use it. While the plan never went into action, other forces raised the price of gasoline and peoples driving habits changed.
That same plan can and will work with electricity too. When electricity gets expensive enough, people will spend the money on LED lights, solar panels, energy star appliances, high effeciency air conditioners and smart technology like the Nest. When electricity gets too expensive and the alternative sources are cheap enough people will begin to change. The key is to find the right incentives go create change.
The question is how do you create the carrots so they aren’t abused? How do you use the sticks so they are effective?
If Mr. Wasserman loses, and San Onofre is allowed to come online, Californians get more power for the summer peak and have less suffering and inconvenience. Less motivation to change how they use power.
If Mr. Wasserman wins and the San Onofre Power Plant is not allowed to restart and come online, Californians are more likely to experience rolling blackouts and demand change. Those that bought electric cars will experience problems charging cars to get to work. Those that stocked up the freezer will lose a lot of money in frozen foods. The California economy will suffer for it, the question is how bad?
Will a real solution appear in time?
TerraPower may still be ten or fifteen years away. What do we do in the interim? Either way, expect power prices to rise, power outages to increase and start thinking about better ways to use the electricity you do get. Capitalism doesn’t provide solutions until the problems make our lives miserable and we are willing to pay for the solution or accept the tradeoffs whatever they may be.
At first people didn’t want economy cars, but today hybrids that get 40 miles per gallon or better dot the Southern California landscape like ants at picnic. In 1973 my Dad’s Cadillac got 11 MPG. Today, a BMW 5 series can get up to 30. You can drive nearly 50% more and use 50% less fuel and still drive a luxury car.
My dad was livid when our grass turned brown, and I was mad because there wasn’t any water to play in. Californian’s didn’t want to save water and give up our lush green lawns so someone invented grasses that use less water like Zoysia, and neighborhoods give out awards for “Water Wise” yards.
Humans are infinitely adaptable and very capable to change when change is needed. When the electric problem gets big enough, a solution will emerge. It might be TerraPower or it might be something else. When billionaires are in the game, there is a chance that the technology might survive and be profitable if the politicians don’t cave to the pressure from the existing industries. Only time will tell.
For now, do we keep San Onofre off line and suffer through the rolling black outs to encourage more support for alternative sources?
What Do We Do?
My opinion, and please feel free to disagree? More Wind Farms? No. More Solar On Rooftops? Yes. More Drilling and Fracking? No. Restart San Onofre? Yes, One reactor at a time for 5 years to be replaced by TerraPower or other similar system would be a reasonable tradeoff. The question is can it be done. The idea is to limit the risks of a failure while minimizing the economic and lifestyle impacts of rolling blackouts.
Mr. Wasserman is only fighting the reactor with his No Nuke program. Although he has been a proponent of renewable energy sources, but hasn’t presented a real solution Californians and the world can live with. Nuclear power is used all over the world. It isn’t time to fight one reactor at a time, instead it is time for disruptive technology to change the game. I hope Bill Gates has a better shot that Mr. Wasserman.
California’s energy problems will be solved. The solution will set at new standard for the rest of the country and in turn the rest of the world, it is only a question of time.
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Thank you for your insights.